2018-08-13

美國重啟伊朗制裁 伊朗報復或推高油價

美國WTI原油9月期貨週二(8月7日)收漲0.16美元,或0.23%,報69.17美元/桶,升幅主要受美國重啟伊朗制裁恐收緊原油供應面狀況,以及沙特意外減產所帶動。

美國與伊朗的緊張關係一直無法得到緩解,局勢隨時可能惡化。美國總統特朗普周二簽署協議,從本周起重新啟動對伊朗的全面制裁,並對和伊朗保持貿易關係的國家做出了嚴厲警告,若任何一個和伊朗做生意的國家將不能和美國保持生意關係。目前,這是計劃中的第一輪制裁,第二輪制裁預期將會在11月初實施。第一輪制裁主要目的是限制伊朗的原油出口,而第二輪制裁是限制伊朗的能源基建以及原油出口設施,美國政府高官稱,美國的政策是讓盡可能多的國家盡快將從伊朗購買原油的數量降至零。

而面對美國的威脅,伊朗方面則絲毫不示弱,根據伊朗國營通訊社周日引述軍方證實,革命衞隊近幾日在霍爾木茲海峽附近海灣地區舉行軍事演習,,旨在對抗敵人「潛在的威脅」。伊朗革命衞隊發言人Ramezan Sharif表示,今次軍事演習屬於年度計劃的一部分,目的是控制及捍衞國際水道的安全。

霍爾木茲海峽連接波斯灣與印度洋,是進出波斯灣的唯一水道,每年有7.5億噸以上運往世界各地的中東石油須經過荷莫茲海峽,佔海灣地區石油總出口量的90%、全球石油產量的五分之一及出口貿易量的三分之一。故此這個海峽的海上安全,對全球經濟的影響和發展極為重要,若荷姆茲海峽被封鎖,波斯灣地區的所有石油輸出將被切斷,嚴重影響全球石油供應。TeleTrade的分析師Artem Avinov此前表示,如果霍爾木茲海峽被封鎖, 將乾擾1700萬桶/天的石油交易,使油價飆升至每桶250美元。

此外,有消息人士稱,全球最大的石油出口國沙特原油產量在7月意外下降,刺激油價上漲。根據路透社援引兩名OPEC消息人士表示,沙特7月原油日產量約為1029萬桶,較上月回落近20萬桶(沙特此前向OPEC表示,該國6月原油日產量為1048.9萬桶/日。)有分析認為,沙特正向市場發出了明確的信號,表達了他們想要的油價區間。當油價過低時,他們便會削減產量。

6月底,OPEC曾達成協議,決定從7月起開始增產。OPEC大會主席和各石油部長在會議後的新聞發布會上紛紛表態稱,此次協議將致力於恢復100%的減產執行率,沙特和主要原油出口國--俄羅斯在6月誓言要從7月開始提高產量,但並未公佈實際的產量增加數字。沙特則承諾,將果斷採取行動穩定油價走勢,原油實際增產量將更接近100萬桶/日。美國投行Jefferies在一份研報中指出,兩大產油國——沙特和俄羅斯的增產產量似乎比市場最初的預期來得更為有限,疊加美國即將恢復對伊朗的製裁,市場對油價上漲的情緒就更為樂觀,建議投資者可於69.31美元/桶購WTI(9月)期貨,目標價74.30美元/桶,止蝕68.10美元/桶。

日期 大市分析
2018-08-13
2018-08-06
2018-07-31
2018-07-23
2018-07-16
2018-07-09
2018-07-03
2018-06-19
2018-06-11
2018-05-28
2018-05-21
2018-05-14
2018-05-07
2018-04-23
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
2018-04-03
2018-03-19
2018-03-12
2018-03-05
2018-02-26
2018-02-20
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
2016-05-09
2016-05-03
2016-04-27
2016-04-11
2016-04-05
2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
2011-10-28
2011-10-12
2011-10-08
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2011-09-03
2011-08-29
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2011-08-13
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2011-06-13
2011-05-30
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2011-05-16
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2011-04-27
2011-04-18
2011-04-04
2011-03-28
2011-03-21
2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
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2010-07-13
2010-07-05
2010-06-28
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2010-06-11
2010-05-17
2010-05-10
2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
2010-01-06
2009-11-27
2009-11-20
2009-11-16
2009-10-28
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2009-09-29
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