2018-05-21

美元強勢下​​金價料將持續下行

現貨黃金周三(5月16日)止跌小幅上漲,美市盤中最高上探至1291.60美元/盎司,觸及年內低位,金價繼續運行在1300一線下方。升幅主要收地緣政治所帶來的影響,但美國經濟數據做好仍限制著金價升幅。

被譽為“恐怖數據”的美國4月零售銷售月率如期錄得0.3%,與預期的一致;4月零售銷售額錄得4976,高於前值的4946;4月核心零售銷售月率錄得0.3%,低於預測的0.5%;4月核心零售銷售錄得3960,高於前值的3933。美國4月零售銷售連續第二個月攀升,進一步證實美國經濟仍在加速增長,加息步伐或加快

此外,舊金山聯儲主席 John Williams 表示,他對美國和海外的經濟前景“ 非常樂觀” ,重申他認為今年適當增加三到四次加息。不過,美國經濟持續增長和積極的前景無助於提高中性利率。在他看來,中性利率處於2.5% 上下。人口老齡化以及全球對避險資產的需求壓低了中性利率。

而地緣政治方面,現時市場目光主要放在中美貿易以及朝美關係內,主要由於緩和了一陣子的朝鮮半島局勢突然又出變卦了。 5月16日凌晨,朝鮮方面宣布,鑑於韓美近日開展針對朝鮮的大規模聯合軍演等挑釁與對抗行為,朝鮮將中止原定於當天舉行的朝韓高級別會談。朝鮮同時警告稱,與韓國一同造成了當前局面的美國也應對提上日程的朝美首腦會晤的命運三思。 

不過,其實聯合空中演習是韓美空軍從2009年開始進行的例行軍演,每年兩次。朝鮮方面對此早已經知曉。而對於朝鮮以軍演為由頭突然叫停北南高級別會談,美國國務院新聞發言人在隨後召開的新聞發布會中的反應也是一頭霧水,稱金正恩說過他理解軍演對美國的重要性。 由此可見,朝鮮以美韓軍演只是藉口,朝鮮突然翻臉或許更多是藉機重新打出核實力這張牌,為與美國談判中爭取更多利益增加籌碼。

另一方面,美國針對中國的301調查進行第二次聽證,本次聽證會就美國貿易代表辦公室所列出的1300種中國商品清單而進行。而環球律師事務所對1847份意見進行了統計,其中反對對中國征稅的意見占到近92%,對徵稅表示支持的佔6%,未表明態度的佔2%。 反對徵稅措施的,主要集中在農業、終端消費品、與中國有緊密產業鏈關聯的行業,以及與中國有緊密商業往來的商業團體;支持者則集中在對中國缺乏競爭優勢的行業,例如鋼鐵行業。 

按照時間表,美國貿易代表處應該於5月22日就是否對清單上的中國產品徵稅以及徵稅水平做出決定。這將決定著美國是否會在貿易戰中打響實質性的一槍,以及美國決定發起的“戰爭規模”的大小。

實物需求方面,作為第二大的黃金消費國,印度的黃金需求是實物黃金市場的重要指標。根據印度商工部公布,2018年4月,印度的黃金進口額年減33%至26億美元。此外世界黃金協會(World Gold Council, WGC)預計今年第一季印度黃金需求年減12%至115.6公噸,其中首飾需求年減12%至87.7公噸,投資需求年減13%至27.9公噸。在美元強勢及實物需求影響下,建議投資者可於1291美元/盎司沾期金(6月),目標價1280美元/盎司,止蝕1302美元/盎司。 

日期 大市分析
2018-05-21
2018-05-14
2018-05-07
2018-04-23
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
2018-04-03
2018-03-19
2018-03-12
2018-03-05
2018-02-26
2018-02-20
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
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2016-06-27
2016-06-20
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2016-05-30
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2015-12-09
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2015-11-23
2015-11-16
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2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
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2015-05-06
2015-04-27
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2015-04-14
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2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
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2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
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2014-09-22
2014-09-15
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2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
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2014-02-24
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2014-02-11
2014-01-28
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2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
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2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
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2013-02-25
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2013-01-28
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2012-11-26
2012-11-19
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2012-11-05
2012-10-29
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2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
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2012-07-30
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2012-06-25
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2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
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2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
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2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
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2011-01-03
2010-12-28
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2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
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2010-11-01
2010-10-25
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2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
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2010-07-26
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2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
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2010-01-06
2009-11-27
2009-11-20
2009-11-16
2009-10-28
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2009-04-30
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2009-04-27
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