2018-09-17

智利銅產再增加 Comex期銅周二承壓

COMEX期銅週二(9月11日)收跌,交投最活躍的COMEX12月期銅收跌6.5美分,結算價報每磅2.6215美元,自6月觸及四年髙位後銅價已回落21%,主要因中美之間的貿易戰升溫,交易商擔心加徵關稅將放緩中國經濟増長,並降低建築業和製造業對於銅的使用量。

銅用於伺服器纜線、引擎、空調等,用途廣泛,被視為能預告經濟走向,大戶拋售期銅,被市場猜測是看壞經濟前景,認為價格難回頭,因而大舉脫手。有專欄作家發文稱,銅告訴投資人恐慌時刻到了,銅價像鐵塊一樣直線下墜,智利礦場罷工延期、或特朗普關稅都不足以解釋此種情況。銅價重挫代表風險資產不久後將爆發廣泛賣壓,警告投資人應該出售或減持風險資產。

產量方面,智利國家銅業委員會(Cochilco)公布的數據顯示,2018年1-7月,智利礦產銅產量年增10.8%至331萬噸。7月份,智利礦產銅產量年增2.9%至48.17萬噸,較前月的47.23萬噸也增加2%。7月份,智利冶煉銅產量20.09萬噸,低於前月的21.08萬噸,以及去年同期的20.87萬噸;其中精銅產量7.34萬噸,粗銅產量12.68萬噸。 

智利今年銅產量增長主要得益於全球最大銅礦埃斯康迪達(Escondida)的生產自去年的罷工當中恢復,年產量百萬噸的埃斯康迪達銅礦去年因為罷工導致產量下滑至92.5萬噸。7月份,埃斯康迪達銅礦產量較去年同期的8.14萬噸增加36%至11.09萬噸,1-7月的銅產量年增85%至75.82萬噸。該礦由必和必拓(BHP)控股57.5%並負責營運,力拓(Rio Tinto)持有30%的股份,以日本三菱公司(8058.JP)為主的財團則持股12.5%。 

全球第三大銅礦科亞瓦西(Collahuasi)1-7月的銅產量年增6%至30.53萬噸,其中7月份銅產量4.32萬噸,相比前月與去年同期分別為4.14萬噸與4.11萬噸。英美資源(Anglo American Plc)以及嘉能可(Glencore Plc)各自持有科亞瓦西銅礦44%股權,由三井物產(Mitsui & Co)領銜的日本財團則持有12%。該礦去年銅產量為52.4萬噸。 

智利國家銅業公司(Codelco)今年1-7月的銅產量年增0.8%至102萬噸,其中7月份銅產量從前月的14.35萬噸增加至14.41萬噸,但低於去年同期的16.07萬噸。旗下兩大礦丘基卡馬塔(Chuquicamata)與埃爾特尼恩特(El Teniente)7月份的銅產量分別為6.05萬噸與4.26萬噸。智利國銅去年銅產量年增0.8%至184.2萬噸。 

第二大銅產國秘魯能源及礦產部公布的數據顯示,2018年1-7月,秘魯銅產量年減0.9%至1,369,278公噸,黃金產量年減4.7%至81.8公噸,鋅產量年增5.4%至867,292公噸,銀產量年減4.6%至2,441公噸,鉛產量年減8%至162,271公噸,錫產量年減0.8%至10,503公噸,鉬產量年減4.3%至15,027公噸,鐵礦石產量年增7.3%至5,718,066公噸,建議投資者可於5890美元/噸沽空三個月期銅,目標價5822美元/噸,止蝕5939美元/噸。

日期 大市分析
2018-09-17
2018-09-10
2018-09-03
2018-08-28
2018-08-20
2018-08-13
2018-08-06
2018-07-31
2018-07-23
2018-07-16
2018-07-09
2018-07-03
2018-06-19
2018-06-11
2018-05-28
2018-05-21
2018-05-14
2018-05-07
2018-04-23
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
2018-04-03
2018-03-19
2018-03-12
2018-03-05
2018-02-26
2018-02-20
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
2016-05-09
2016-05-03
2016-04-27
2016-04-11
2016-04-05
2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
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2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
2011-10-28
2011-10-12
2011-10-08
2011-09-19
2011-09-03
2011-08-29
2011-08-22
2011-08-13
2011-08-08
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-05
2011-06-22
2011-06-13
2011-05-30
2011-05-23
2011-05-16
2011-05-09
2011-05-05
2011-04-27
2011-04-18
2011-04-04
2011-03-28
2011-03-21
2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
2010-07-20
2010-07-13
2010-07-05
2010-06-28
2010-06-21
2010-06-11
2010-05-17
2010-05-10
2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
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2009-11-27
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2009-07-24
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2009-06-30
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2009-03-13
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2009-03-07
2009-03-03
2009-02-27
2009-02-20
2009-02-16
2009-02-16
2009-02-13
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