2018-04-23

擔心美國對俄鎳進行制裁​LME期鎳創6年半來最大單日漲幅

倫敦金屬交易所(LME)三個月期鎳收漲7.5%,報每噸15,275美元,創3年高位,並創出2008年以來最大單日漲幅。交易人士直指,市場擔憂,若美國對俄制裁擴大涵蓋範圍,俄國的諾里爾斯克鎳公司(Norilsk Nickel) ,可能也會受到影響。

過去兩個交易日,LME期鎳累計連漲17%,為2009年1月以來最大兩日漲幅。若從2016年早些時候礦業周期底部來計算,鎳價已經翻了一番。中國方面,上期所滬鎳早盤一度觸及漲停板,價格升至近三年最高水平。“就動盪程度而言,這種市場行情真的是聞所未聞、前所未見,”法國興業銀行金屬分析師Robin Bhar在接受彭博社採訪時無法掩飾自己的震驚,“太令人驚嘆了。” 

為何鎳價也大漲? 越來越多的人擔心,俄羅斯最大鎳生產商諾里爾斯克鎳業(Norilsk Nickel)可能成為美國對俄製裁的下一個受害者。諾里爾斯克鎳業作為全球第二大鎳生產商和最大鈀金生產商,目前市值約300億美元,Norilsk目前生產俄羅斯超過90%的鎳、58%的銅、超過80%的鈷,以及幾乎100%的鉑相關金屬。

俄羅斯諾里爾斯克鎳業被視為下一個制裁對像不是沒有依據:俄鋁的實際控制人、從俄羅斯鋁業匪幫鬥爭中獲勝的億萬富豪Oleg Deripaska是諾里爾斯克鎳業的共同所有人,持股比例約27.8%。另一位所有人是俄羅斯寡頭富豪Vladimir Potanin,他持有的諾里爾斯克鎳業股份上個月增加至32.9%。此外,知名俄羅斯寡頭、英格蘭切爾西足球俱樂部老闆羅曼·阿布拉莫維奇(Roman Abramovich)也擁有該公司部分股權。

引發市場猜測的更直接的蛛絲馬跡是美國財政部1月公佈的一份囊括210位俄國富豪的清單,其中的96位寡頭備受關注,諾里爾斯克鎳業的共同所有人Vladimir Potanin赫然在列,如果Vladimir Potanin被列入美國特別認定國民(Specially Designated Nationals)名單,根據50%法則,諾里爾斯克鎳業也將變成一個被制裁的實體。與此同時, LME週二將諾里爾斯克鎳業生產的兩個Nornickel品牌鎳板從交割名單中剔除,進一步刺激了市場對基本面的擔憂情緒。 

不過,有分析認為其實這是市場的誤讀。LME去年10月就表示將從2018年4月18日起不再將諾里爾斯克鎳業生產的兩個品牌鎳板用於期現交割。該集團一位女發言人稱:“我們6個月前就公佈了剔除計劃,因為諾里爾斯克鎳業已經停止生產這兩個品牌的產品。”

儘管俄羅斯鎳生產商目前並未明確會被制裁,一切還處於心理憂慮層面,但鋁的走勢卻為鎳市場樹立了極好的典範,激發出投資者豐富的想像空間。此外,鎳市場的其他基本面情況原本也對價格構成了強大的支撐。首先,俄羅斯約佔全球10%的鎳供給量,這些鎳主要用來製造不鏽鋼與車用電池,隨著電動車投資狂潮開啟,製造電池的鎳需求激增,從而導致鎳市場近些年處於供應短缺狀態。

另一方面,巴西淡水河谷(Vale SA)鎳產量減少18%,必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)預計電動車動力電池對鎳的需求將增加。這些助長了市場的看漲情緒;資產管理公司ETF Securities大宗商品策略師Nitesh Shah表示,鎳供應原本已經吃緊,而地緣政治問題進一步加劇了供應緊張,建議投資者可於15,050美元/噸購三個月期鎳,目標價15,625美元/噸,止蝕14,650美元/噸。

日期 大市分析
2018-04-23
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
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2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
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2016-03-15
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2016-02-29
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2016-01-11
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2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
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2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
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2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
2011-10-28
2011-10-12
2011-10-08
2011-09-19
2011-09-03
2011-08-29
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2011-08-13
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2011-05-30
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2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
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2010-06-28
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2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
2010-01-06
2009-11-27
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2009-11-16
2009-10-28
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2009-09-29
2009-09-07
2009-08-28
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