2018-06-11

智利供應顧慮持續 LME期銅收漲 1.7%

LME三個月期銅周三(6月6日)收漲1.7%,報每噸7,220美元。主要全球最大銅礦埃斯康迪達談判仍然持續,另市場擔憂所帶來的供應影響。另一方面,中國的廢銅禁令同樣為銅價帶來支持。

必和必拓位於智利的埃斯康迪達(Escondida)銅礦工會領袖上周提出調高薪資要求,讓外界擔心該礦工人可能發動罷工來增加談判籌碼。工會要求支付平均每人34,000美元的一次性獎金,總額相當於2017年向必和必拓支付股息的4%,這將是智利有史以來最大的礦工獎金支出。工會還希望工資增長5%,必和必拓直到下週五才會作出回應。

必和必拓在過去五年內花費了約80億美元將該礦產量維持在100萬噸以上,佔世界主要銅供應的近5%,根據智利國家銅業委員會(Cochilco)5月8日公布,2018年第一季,智利銅產量年增18.9%,主要因為全球最大銅礦埃斯康迪達(Escondida)第一季產量較去年同期倍增至322,700公噸的影響,這是近年來繼2016年五礦拉斯邦巴斯(Las Bambas)投產之後的第二大單產增加。不過若今次談判未取得成效,可能會對埃斯康迪達銅產帶來負面影響。

智利銅礦商安托法加斯塔(Antofagasta Plc.)5月8日表示,該公司旗下最大銅礦洛斯佩蘭布雷斯(Los Pelambres)加工廠的銅精礦輸送帶發生故障,此將導致公司的銅精礦庫存水平需要三個月的時間才能恢復到正常水準,也將同步影響到公司今年上半年的生產與銷售計劃,預計銅產量可能減少約10,000噸,銷售量減少約15,000噸。不過,全年的生產目標預計不會受到嚴重影響,公司仍預計今年銅產量為70.5~74萬噸。洛斯佩蘭布雷斯銅礦去年銅產量為35.6萬噸。

秘魯是僅次於智利的第二大銅產國。根據該國的能源及礦產部表示,2017年,秘魯的礦業投資額年增15.7%達到49.2億美元。其中,對礦區基礎建設、礦業探勘以及採礦設備的投資分別佔了44.3%、34.2%與24.9%比重。不過,雖然秘魯對礦業投資額有所增加,但產量卻有所下解。根據秘魯能源及礦產部公布的數據顯示,2018年4月,秘魯銅產量年減2.8%至185,604公噸,2018年1-4月,秘魯銅產量年減0.2%至753,106公噸,主要因一系列勞動合同談判帶來的銅供應中斷。

中國作為全球最大銅進口國,最近卻受廢銅政策所影響。中國2018年實施最新的廢銅進口政策,六類廢雜銅的進口需要資格但不需要批文,有資格的不限進口數量;七類廢雜銅的進口既需要資格又需要批文,有了批文之後還需要申請批文額度。有分析認為中國的廢銅進口政策可能導致今年的廢銅進口量減少約30萬噸,

今年全球銅市的供給短缺將從2017年的6.7萬噸擴大至2018年的17.5萬噸,因今年兩大銅礦產國智利與秘魯都將面臨多處銅礦的勞工合約更新,去年罷工造成產量減少的威脅仍在;而在另一方面,中國國內的環保趨嚴,這可能會令該國的銅進口需求增加,建議投資者可於7140美元/噸購LME三個月期銅,目標價7450美元/噸,止蝕6933美元/噸。

 

日期 大市分析
2018-06-11
2018-05-28
2018-05-21
2018-05-14
2018-05-07
2018-04-23
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
2018-04-03
2018-03-19
2018-03-12
2018-03-05
2018-02-26
2018-02-20
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
2016-05-09
2016-05-03
2016-04-27
2016-04-11
2016-04-05
2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
2011-10-28
2011-10-12
2011-10-08
2011-09-19
2011-09-03
2011-08-29
2011-08-22
2011-08-13
2011-08-08
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-05
2011-06-22
2011-06-13
2011-05-30
2011-05-23
2011-05-16
2011-05-09
2011-05-05
2011-04-27
2011-04-18
2011-04-04
2011-03-28
2011-03-21
2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
2010-07-20
2010-07-13
2010-07-05
2010-06-28
2010-06-21
2010-06-11
2010-05-17
2010-05-10
2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
2010-01-06
2009-11-27
2009-11-20
2009-11-16
2009-10-28
2009-10-05
2009-09-29
2009-09-07
2009-08-28
2009-08-21
2009-08-20
2009-08-17
2009-08-17
2009-08-14
2009-08-04
2009-07-24
2009-07-13
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-03
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-26
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-23
2009-06-23
2009-06-22
2009-06-15
2009-06-15
2009-06-12
2009-06-11
2009-06-11
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-01
2009-05-22
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-18
2009-05-07
2009-05-04
2009-04-30
2009-04-29
2009-04-29
2009-04-27
2009-04-27
2009-04-22
2009-04-22
2009-04-20
2009-04-17
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-27
2009-03-23
2009-03-23
2009-03-20
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-13
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-07
2009-03-03
2009-02-27
2009-02-20
2009-02-16
2009-02-16
2009-02-13
2009-02-12
2009-02-12
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-01-23
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-20
2009-01-16
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-09
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-06
2009-01-06
2009-01-02
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-23
2008-12-23
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-12
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-20
2008-11-20
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-17
2008-11-17
2008-11-14
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-11
2008-11-11
2008-11-11
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-07
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-03
2008-10-31
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-28
2008-10-28
2008-10-28
2008-10-24
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-17
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2006-06-23