2018-02-09

美國產量創新高 油價再度重挫

油價週三跌至一個月低位,WTI(3月)期油下跌1.60美元,報61.79美元/桶,創四周最低。此前數據顯示,美國原油庫存增加,原油產量創紀錄新高,進一步加重了投資者的擔憂情緒,此外美元反彈也加大了油價的下行空間。

美國能源資訊局(EIA)2月7日公佈的數據顯示,截至2月2日,美國商業原油庫存較前週增加190萬桶至4.203億桶。根據路透社的調查,分析師原先預估原油庫存將增加320萬桶,前一天美國石油協會(IEA)公布的數據為減少110萬桶。美國上週汽油庫存增加340萬桶至2.455億桶,蒸餾油庫存增加390萬桶至1.418億桶。此外,美國上週原油日產量突破千萬桶大關達到1,025.1萬桶,並連續4週錄得增長,創下自1983年發布週度預測數據以來的新高。 

美國能源資訊局(EIA)週二(2月6日)公佈短期能源展望報告顯示,美國原油產量的增長可能快於原先的預期,報告預估今年第一季美國原油的日均產量將超過千萬桶大關來到1,024萬桶,並預期今年稍晚美國原油日產量將會超過1,100萬桶,第四季美國原油日均產量預估將會達到1,104萬桶。

EIA本月報告預估,2018年美國原油日均產量將年增126萬桶達到1,059萬桶,相比前月的預估為年增1,027萬桶。美國能源部最新的月度統計數據顯示,2017年11月,美國日均原油產量正式突破一千萬桶大關,來到1,003.8萬桶,此為1970年以來新高。美國原油產量的月度統計數據可以追溯至1920年,產量高峰是1970年11月創下的1,004.4萬桶/日。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)預估,如果油價維持在每桶60美元以上,今年美國頁岩油的日產量將可望提高100萬桶;如果油價維持在70美元以上,美國的頁岩油日產量將增加150萬桶。

庫存方面,EIA預估2017年全球石油庫存減少了50萬桶/日,但鑒於美國產量增長的預期,2018以及2019年,全球石油庫存預期均將增加20萬桶/日。報告預估,2017年全球石油產量為9,800萬桶/日,消費量為9,850萬桶/日;2018年全球石油產量為10,043萬桶/日,消費量為10,023萬桶/日;2019年全球石油產量為10,217萬桶/日,消費量為10,195萬桶/日。

美國油服公司貝克休斯(BakerHughes)週五(2月2日)公佈數據顯示,截至2月2日當週,美國石油活躍鑽井數增加6座至765座,觸及2017年8月來新高。更多數據顯示,截至2月2日當周美國石油和天然氣活躍鑽井總數減少1座至946座。

需求方面,中國作為全球最大原油進口國,該政府已經向國內44家原油企業發放2018年進口配額合計1.2132億噸。目前中國原油進口量已經達到850萬桶/日,預計隨著更多的民營煉油廠投入生產,2018年中國原油進口還將繼續走高。同時11月中國原油庫存觸及7年低位2615萬噸。

另外,美元強勢同樣為油價帶來壓力。在白宮高官就預算協議發表了評論之後,美元多頭瞬間爆發,美指再次站上90關口,兌一籃子貨幣創下逾三個月來最大單日漲幅。有分析師指出,在遭受了一個月的打壓之後,美元開始顯示出複甦的跡象,這令油價下行空間加大,建議建議投資者可於60.88美元/桶沽WTI原油(3月),目標價58.84美元/桶,止蝕61.22美元/桶。

日期 大市分析
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
2016-05-09
2016-05-03
2016-04-27
2016-04-11
2016-04-05
2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
2011-10-28
2011-10-12
2011-10-08
2011-09-19
2011-09-03
2011-08-29
2011-08-22
2011-08-13
2011-08-08
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-05
2011-06-22
2011-06-13
2011-05-30
2011-05-23
2011-05-16
2011-05-09
2011-05-05
2011-04-27
2011-04-18
2011-04-04
2011-03-28
2011-03-21
2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
2010-07-20
2010-07-13
2010-07-05
2010-06-28
2010-06-21
2010-06-11
2010-05-17
2010-05-10
2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
2010-01-06
2009-11-27
2009-11-20
2009-11-16
2009-10-28
2009-10-05
2009-09-29
2009-09-07
2009-08-28
2009-08-21
2009-08-20
2009-08-17
2009-08-17
2009-08-14
2009-08-04
2009-07-24
2009-07-13
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-03
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-26
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-23
2009-06-23
2009-06-22
2009-06-15
2009-06-15
2009-06-12
2009-06-11
2009-06-11
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-01
2009-05-22
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-18
2009-05-07
2009-05-04
2009-04-30
2009-04-29
2009-04-29
2009-04-27
2009-04-27
2009-04-22
2009-04-22
2009-04-20
2009-04-17
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-27
2009-03-23
2009-03-23
2009-03-20
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-13
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-07
2009-03-03
2009-02-27
2009-02-20
2009-02-16
2009-02-16
2009-02-13
2009-02-12
2009-02-12
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-01-23
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-20
2009-01-16
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-09
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-06
2009-01-06
2009-01-02
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-23
2008-12-23
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-12
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-20
2008-11-20
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-17
2008-11-17
2008-11-14
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-11
2008-11-11
2008-11-11
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-07
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-03
2008-10-31
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-28
2008-10-28
2008-10-28
2008-10-24
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-17
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2006-06-23