2018-01-15

地緣政治風險持續​原油期貨受提振

原油價格週二(1月9日)維持漲勢,WTI原油期貨收升1.23美元,報每桶62.96美元,盤中觸及2014年12月以來最高的63.24美元,升幅主要受伊朗局勢緊張及美國鑽探活動下降引起產量可能下滑的憂慮所帶動。

伊朗的局勢繼續動盪,從去年12月28日在伊朗的第二大城馬什哈德(Mashhad)開始的街頭示威,已造成21人死亡,目前。伊朗警方已經對超過一千人實施逮捕。針對伊朗國內的反政府抗議,美國駐聯合國大使黑利(Nikki Haley)表示,美國將會要求聯合國安理會及人權理事會召開緊急會議,應對伊朗的抗議。伊朗的權力鬥爭引發市場對於這個OPEC第三大產油國穩定性的擔憂。

美國油服公司貝克休斯(Baker Hughes)週五(1月5日)公佈數據顯示,截至1月5日當週,美國石油活躍鑽井數減少5座至742座,之前連續三週持平於747座。去年同期美國石油活躍鑽井數為529座。更多數據顯示,截至1月5日當周美國石油和天然氣活躍鑽井總數減少5座至924座。

需求方面,中國作為全球最大原油進口國,最近已經向國內44家原油企業發放2018年進口配額合計1.2132億噸。目前中國原油進口量已經達到850萬桶/日,預計隨著更多的民營煉油廠投入生產,2018年中國原油進口還將繼續走高。同時11月中國原油庫存觸及7年低位2615萬噸,這為油價提供了有效支撐。

庫存方面,美國能源信息署(EIA)週三(1月10日)公佈的數據顯示,截至1月5日當週,美國原油庫存減少494.8萬桶,連續8週錄得下滑,市場預估為減少410萬桶。美國原油主要交割地庫欣庫存減少239.5萬桶,連續3週錄得下降後首次錄得下降,已經低於5年平均水平。另一方面,美國精煉油庫存增加425.4萬桶,連續4週錄得增加,市場預估為增加90萬桶。美國汽油庫存增加413.5萬桶,連續9週錄得增加,市場預估為增加274萬桶。

此外,EIA又於1月9日發布的短期能源展望報告(STEO),2017年美國原油日產量預估平均為930萬桶、當年度12月日產量預估平均為990萬桶。2018年料將升至1,030萬桶(日產量相當於年增100萬桶,見圖)、超越1970年的960萬桶創下歷史新高紀錄,2019年可望進一步升至1,080萬桶、當年度11月日產量可望突破1,100萬桶。

EIA預估石油輸出國組織(OPEC)2017年原油日產量為3,250萬桶、較2016年縮減20萬桶,主要是受到2016年11月達成減產協議的影響,2017年第4季OPEC減產協議達成率接近100%,主要是受到委內瑞拉原油日產量在12月(180萬桶)降至2003年2月以來最低水準的影響。2018年度方面,EIA預期OPEC 2018年原油日產量將上揚20萬桶,主要因利比亞產量維持在相對高的水平。

價錢方面,EIA 公佈2017年度布蘭特(Brent)原油每桶均價報54美元、較2016年上揚10美元,2018年、2019年預估將分別達到60美元、61美元。2018年、2019年西德州中級原油(WTI)原油現貨價預估平均較布蘭特原油低4美元,兩者價差小於2017年第4季(6美元)。在各種利好的因素帶動下,料原油價格將繼續強勢,建議投資者可於63.42美元/桶購WTI原油(2月),目標價65.36美元/桶,止蝕60.01美元/桶。

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