2017-11-27

中東地緣政治不穩​提振美原油價格

美國WTI原油1月期貨週三(11月22日)收漲1.19美元,或2.1%,報58.02美元/桶。升幅主要受沙特與伊朗的地緣政治、以及原油庫存數據所提振。

自11月以來,中東局勢陡然變得緊繃,其中又以黎巴嫩總理辭職為導火索。黎巴嫩總理哈里裡在訪問沙特期間突然發表辭職聲明,指責伊朗及其支持的黎巴嫩真主黨干涉黎巴嫩內政,並暗示自己受到暗殺威脅。而伊朗則認為,哈里裡是被沙特脅迫辭職。這一風波不僅令教派林立的黎巴嫩國內局勢進一步激化,也將黎巴嫩推到了沙特和伊朗的鬥爭前線。 

受中東地緣政治影響,WTI原油一度突破58美元/桶關口,布倫特原油則穩居於60美元上方。過去三個月中,油價累計漲幅超過20%。光靠供求因素已經很難解釋這種上漲了,市場對沙特和伊朗這兩個產油大國兵戎相見的擔憂可能是更重要的上漲推手。沙特與伊朗之間的某些事兒,可能發生,也可能不發生。這正是原油價格的“地緣政治風險溢價”。對原油供應可能在未來某個時刻突然中斷的恐懼像陰雲一般,時隔多年又籠罩在了市場上空。在中東地區“已知”的不確定性的影響下,當前原油價格已經消化了10-20%的風險溢價。 

庫存方面,美國能源信息署(EIA)週三(11月22日)公佈的數據顯示,截至11月17日當週,美國原油庫存減少185.5萬桶,市場預估為減少220萬桶。美國原油主要交割地庫欣庫存減少182.7萬桶,創7月14日當週(19週)以來新低。美國精煉油庫存增加26.9萬桶,連續4週錄得下滑後本週錄得增長,市場預估為減少190萬桶。美國汽油庫存增加4.4萬桶,連續第2週錄得增長,市場預估為增加100萬桶。出口方面,上周美國原油出口增加46.2萬桶/日至159.1萬桶/日。上周美國從墨西哥進口的原油達到97萬桶/日,創2014年以來新高。此外,上周美國國內原油產量增加1.3萬桶至965.8萬桶/日,連續5週錄得增長且創紀錄新高。值得注意的是,上周美國原油及成品油總庫存出現8週來首次上升。 

美國石油協會(API)最新公佈的數據顯示,截至11月17日當週,美國原油庫存減少636萬桶,遠超預期的減少216.7萬桶。精煉油庫存錄得下降170萬桶,降幅不及預期。而汽油庫存則錄得上升86.9萬桶,但升幅未超出預期。另一方面,市場估計能源資訊局(EIA)周三公布的上周原油庫存將減少210萬桶,汽油與蒸餾油庫存分別增加100萬與減少180萬桶。

另外,OPEC 本月30日將在維也納開會,OPEC 與其他10個非 OPEC 產油國(包括俄羅斯)早前同意減產約180萬桶/日,直到2018年3月。市場預期各國將決定延長這項減產協議。沙特能源部長法利赫(KhalidAl-Falih)上週五表示,OPEC和包括俄羅斯在內的非OEPC產油國應當在月底就延長減產協議達成一致。伊朗石油部長贊加內(BijanNamdarZangane)也表態稱,多數OPEC成員國都傾向於延長減產協議,因此市場普遍認為OPEC減產演延長9個月是毫無疑問,建議投資者可於57.75美元/桶購WTI原油(1月),目標價59.26美元/桶,止蝕57.01美元/桶。

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2017-11-27
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2017-02-27
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2017-01-03
2016-12-19
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2016-06-27
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2015-07-27
2015-07-20
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2015-06-29
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2015-06-01
2015-05-26
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2015-04-27
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2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
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2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
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2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
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