2017-09-25

美聯儲10月開啟縮表 黃金價格料失守1300美元

國際現貨黃金周三(9月20日)在美聯儲宣布維持利率決定不變,並將於10月開啟縮表之後,短線急挫,美市盤中最低下探至1295.81美元/盎司,跌破1300大關,跌幅逾1%。

美聯儲結束了為期兩天的9月FOMC貨幣政策會議,並發布聲明、更新季度經濟預測和利率預期點陣圖,美聯儲主席耶倫舉辦季度記者會。首先,FOMC宣布暫不加息,即維持目標利率區間在1.0%-1.25%不變;而根據點陣圖顯示,16名官員中有12人預計今年至少再加息一次,預計2018年加息三次;但下調2019年加息預期至兩次,首度公佈2020年或加息一次。

另外,FOMC又宣布10月開始縮減資產負債表。按照6月會議指導原則,10月啟動漸進式被動縮表;首批減少10月31日到期的60億美元美債再投資,10月13日公佈40億美元抵押貸款債券( MBS)停止再投資細節;到2018年底合計縮表規模漲至500億美元/月,隨後維持這一幅度。

決議又上調了未來經濟預測,美聯儲的預估中值為2017年GDP增長2.4%(6月份預估為2.2%),失業率為4.3%(6月份預估為4.3%),核心PCE通脹為1.5%(6月份預估為1.7%);2018年GDP增長2.1%(前值為2.1%),失業率為4.1%(前值為4.2%),核心通脹為1.9%(前值為2.0%) ;2019年GDP增長2.0%(前值為1.9%),失業率為4.1%(前值為4.2%),核心通脹為2.0%(前值為2.0%);2020年GDP增長1.8% ,失業率為4.2%,核心通脹為2.0%。其中,市場焦點落在美國通脹為何持續低企,耶倫坦言,通脹低於2%令人憂慮,承認局方對通脹的理解不足,還在考察是否為臨時因素,一旦情況轉差,或會調整貨幣政策令通脹回升至2%的目標水平。

FOMC聲明和耶倫記者會講稿都一再肯定了經濟活動向好,包括今年保持溫和增速、勞動力市場持續強勁、家庭開支持續溫和增長,並特別指出最近幾個季度商業固定投資重新抬升,耶倫格外強調了全球經濟改善提振美國出口。縮表方面,分析師普遍認為,美聯儲前期調整市場對縮表的預期較為成功,聲明後的市場反應沒有很大,主要等待著歐洲央行和英國央几的決策,再決定未來的大方向。 

聲明會後,美元指數從不足92關口並跌0.3%,火速上漲0.8%,觸及92.70的兩週新高;美元兌日元短線拉升逾50點,突破112關口,創近兩個月最高;現貨黃金急跌至少14美元,月內首次跌破1300美元/盎司關口。此外,美債收益率大漲:兩年期美債收益率上揚6.6個基點,觸及1.451%的2008年11月以來最高;10年期美債收益率漲5個基點,觸及2.289%的8月8日以來盤中新高。 

美聯儲下一次政策會議安排在10月31日-11月1日,芝加哥商交所(CME)根據聯邦基金利率期貨的交易計算得出,只有4%的概率在下次加息。而12月加息的概率在聲明後暴漲至78.4%,遠超一天前的57.7%、一周前的48%,以及一個月前的39%。在市場對12月加息的預期日益加劇,令金價存在持續下行的壓力,若金價跌穿1,300美元的心理關口,料將開啟持續下行通道,建議投資者可於1293.66美元/盎司沽空期金(12月),目標價1278.66美元/盎司,止蝕美元1305.21/盎司。

日期 大市分析
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
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2017-07-10
2017-06-26
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2017-06-13
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2017-05-29
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2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
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2016-10-24
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2016-10-11
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2016-09-26
2016-09-19
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2016-08-29
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