2017-08-21

最大鋁生產商宣布關停部分產能​全球原鋁市場供應短缺

LME鋁期鋁週二(8月15日)持續上漲,最新報2054美元/噸,為2014年11月以來最高。自8月初以來,LME期鋁價格漲幅已超過7%,而本日升幅主要受全球最大鋁生產商中國宏橋集團公告將關停部分鋁產能所帶動。

大陸作為鋁主產國,鋁產量佔全球半數以上。據統計指出,2016年全球十大原鋁生產商合計產量3,093萬噸,較上年度增長4%,大陸企業佔了一半席位。其中,中國企業合計產量1,664萬噸,佔比為53.8%。中國宏橋集團作為全球十大原鋁生產商之一,該集團將關停產能的傳言已經有一段時間,即使現在正式宣佈了。該公司周一(8月13日)發出公告表示,子公司山東宏橋關停涉及年產268萬噸的鋁產品產能,共占公司鋁總產能的29%;目前運營的總產能646萬噸均已辦理備案手續。不過有業者表示懷疑該公司是否會確實執行,主要因當前鋁錠的價格正好,該公司在正式關停產能以前將會盡可能地生產。

另一方面,山東發改委7月24日公告稱,根據企業自查和省內核查情況,責令山東魏橋創業集團(中國宏橋母公司)和信發集團7月底前關停違規電解鋁產能共321萬噸。截至2017年7月,大陸電解鋁運行產能為3,836萬噸,此次關停的違規產能將近全國的十分之一,料將對期鋁價格持續做成影響。

瑞銀發布研報上調2017/18年度的鋁價預測從之前的每磅87美分調高至每磅95美分(2094美元/噸)。瑞銀Daniel Morgan等分析師表示,山東宣布關閉的非法産能數量高于銀行和市場預期。瑞銀表示,中國冬季採暖季錯峰生産將導緻今年11月至明年3月産出減少130萬噸,另外年底前將有120萬噸/年的新産能投産,大約400萬噸/年的閑置産能可能重新啓動。

需求方面,中國表觀需求較2016年增長10.2%。1-6月中國原鋁淨出口量為17.3萬噸,2016年全年未加工鋁淨出口量為25.5萬噸。1-6月,來自中國鋁半成品製造商的淨出口量增至184.1萬噸,去年同期為195.5萬噸。此外,根據前瞻產業研究院發布的《中國電解鋁行業產銷需求與前景預測分析報告》預計,到2018年,中國原鋁消費量複合年均增長率約為5.5%,未來中國電解鋁的原材料成本將有所上升。在供需平衡格局下,未來電解鋁價格將持續向上

世界金屬統計局(WBMS)公佈的報告顯示,2017年1-6月,原鋁市場供應短缺107.4萬噸,而2016年全年供應短缺109.7萬噸。今年1-6月,原鋁需求量為3,080萬噸,較去年同期增加200.8萬噸。1-6月原鋁產量同比增加169.2萬噸。

庫存方面,WBMS並未有公佈生產商庫存數據。6月期間的總報告庫存下滑31.4萬噸,截至6月末為203.3萬噸,相當於13天的需求量,而在2016年末時為276.1萬噸。在中國持續實際去產能情況下,建議投資者可於2050美元/噸購LME期鋁,目標價2077美元/噸,止蝕21010美元/噸。

 

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2016-10-24
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2016-08-29
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2016-07-25
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2016-06-27
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2015-10-19
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2015-09-29
2015-09-21
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2015-08-31
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2015-05-26
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2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
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2014-05-26
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2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
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2012-07-30
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