2017-11-20

中國經濟數據不佳​​LME銅價持續受壓

倫敦金屬交易所(LME)3個月基本金屬期貨11月14日全面下跌,其中期銅下跌2%,報每噸6,759美元,而期鎳則大跌5.7%,報11,780美元,創去年3月以來的最大單日跌幅,跌幅主要受最大金屬消費國中國大陸經濟數據不如預期的影響。

根據中國統計局數據顯示,1-10月,全國固定資產投資同比增長7.3%,增速比1-9月回落0.2個百分點。民間固定資產投資增長5.8%,增速比1-9月回落0.2個百分點。民間固定資產投資佔全國固定資產投資的比重為60.6%,比1-9月提高0.1個百分點。  

有分析員稱,中國10月經濟數據明顯受到房地產市場繼續回檔的影響,投資消費呈現弱勢,金融去槓桿強監管也對信貸和社融產生負面衝擊,第四季經濟較第三季小幅趨緩已成定局,而房地產投資拐頭向下,增速降至年內次低點,成為主要拖累。丹麥丹斯克銀行分析師Jens Pedersen表示,中國經濟目前的總體情況是信貸不斷收緊,這正在向實體經濟傳導,意味基本金屬需求將會下降。

不過,全球最大礦商必和必拓(BHP Billiton)則認為中國大陸的需要仍然強勁。該公司執行長麥肯茲(Andrew Mackenzie)在年度股東會上表示,大陸房市以及汽車市場的需求可能會有所放緩,但基礎建設的需求仍將相當強勁;此外,大陸政府也積極在改善環境並要求企業提高效率,特別是鋼鐵行業,這就需要更多高品質的鐵礦石、煤以及銅精礦等。

必和必拓今年第三季的銅產量年增14%至40.4萬噸,主要由於智利埃斯康迪達銅礦(Escondida)產量增加,以及該礦的科羅拉多選礦廠(Los Colorados)擴充項目投產的帶動。必和必拓斥資1.8億美元擴充科羅拉多選礦廠,擴充完成之後,將令埃斯康迪達銅礦未來十年的平均年產量達到120萬噸。必和必拓也是全球第二大的銅生產商,自七月起的2017/18財年,該公司銅產量預估將年增25%-35%至113-123萬噸。

最大銅產國智利銅業委員會(Cochilco)的數據顯示,2017年9月,智利銅產量為47.5萬噸,較去年同期增長3.2%。今年前三季,智利銅產量為396萬噸,較去年同期下降4.0%。智利國家銅業公司(Codelco)今年前三季產量為132萬噸,較去年同期下降3.2%。其中丘基卡瑪塔(Chuquicamata)、拉多米羅托米奇(Radomiro Tomic)、哈雷斯(Ministro Hales)聯礦產量為59.54萬噸,較去年同期下降8.0%。特尼恩特(ElTeniente)銅礦產量為34.62萬噸,較去年同期下降1.8%。安迪納(Andina)銅礦產量為16.42萬噸,較去年同期增長16.8%。

印度國營銅礦商印度斯坦銅業(Hindustan Copper)表示,該公司將與國家鋁業公司(National Aluminum Company)和礦產開發合作有限公司(Mineral Exploration Corporation Limited)共同合資探勘以及開採海外的礦產資源,該公司並計劃斥資7億美元投資於六處礦場擴張項目,其中包括將該公司旗下最大銅礦、位於印度中央邦的馬蘭傑坎德銅礦(Malanjkhand)年產能從200萬噸提高至520萬噸。

根據美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)最新公佈,截止11月7日為止,當週Comex銅期貨和期權分類持倉報告基金多頭報140,149手,較10月31日比減少5,045,反映機構投資者普遍看空銅價,建議投資者可於6,821美元/噸沽LME 3個月期銅,目標價6,455美元/噸,止蝕6,981美元/噸。

日期 大市分析
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
2016-05-09
2016-05-03
2016-04-27
2016-04-11
2016-04-05
2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
2011-10-28
2011-10-12
2011-10-08
2011-09-19
2011-09-03
2011-08-29
2011-08-22
2011-08-13
2011-08-08
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-05
2011-06-22
2011-06-13
2011-05-30
2011-05-23
2011-05-16
2011-05-09
2011-05-05
2011-04-27
2011-04-18
2011-04-04
2011-03-28
2011-03-21
2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
2010-07-20
2010-07-13
2010-07-05
2010-06-28
2010-06-21
2010-06-11
2010-05-17
2010-05-10
2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
2010-01-06
2009-11-27
2009-11-20
2009-11-16
2009-10-28
2009-10-05
2009-09-29
2009-09-07
2009-08-28
2009-08-21
2009-08-20
2009-08-17
2009-08-17
2009-08-14
2009-08-04
2009-07-24
2009-07-13
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-03
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-26
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-23
2009-06-23
2009-06-22
2009-06-15
2009-06-15
2009-06-12
2009-06-11
2009-06-11
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-01
2009-05-22
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-18
2009-05-07
2009-05-04
2009-04-30
2009-04-29
2009-04-29
2009-04-27
2009-04-27
2009-04-22
2009-04-22
2009-04-20
2009-04-17
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-27
2009-03-23
2009-03-23
2009-03-20
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-13
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-07
2009-03-03
2009-02-27
2009-02-20
2009-02-16
2009-02-16
2009-02-13
2009-02-12
2009-02-12
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-01-23
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-20
2009-01-16
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-09
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-06
2009-01-06
2009-01-02
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-23
2008-12-23
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
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2008-12-15
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2008-12-15
2008-12-12
2008-12-04
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2008-12-04
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2008-11-26
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2008-11-24
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2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-20
2008-11-20
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2008-11-17
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2008-11-14
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2008-11-11
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2008-11-10
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2008-10-31
2008-10-30
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2008-10-24
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2006-06-23