2017-07-17

USDA上調美國玉米庫存預估​玉米期價受壓下跌

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)玉米期貨週二收跌,9月玉米期貨合約收跌1/4美分,報每蒲式耳4.01-3/4美元,跌幅主要受USDA上調美國玉米庫存預估以及巴西玉米產量可能再創新高所影響。

美國農業部(USDA)週一(7月10日)公佈的每周作物生長報告顯示,截至7月9日當週,美國玉米生長優良率為65%,前一周為68%,去年同期為76%。優良率下降主要受北部平原的旱情擴散所影響,而USDA預期未來幾週天氣將更加炎熱乾燥。受消息影響,9月合約和12月合約曾觸及一年高位。此外,USDA維持美國2017年玉米單產預估在每英畝170.7蒲式耳不變,分析師原本預期農業部將下調預估,因中西部部分地區天氣乾燥。 作為對比,Informa預計2017年美國玉米平均單產為每英畝169.7蒲式耳,2017年美國玉米產量預計為141.66億蒲式耳。

庫存方面,美國農業部(USDA)周三(7月12日)發布世界農產品供需預測報告(World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE),報告將本年度(2016/17)美國玉米期末庫存預估從22.95億英斗上調至23.70億英斗,自9月起的2017/18年度玉米期末庫存預估也從21.10億英斗上調至23.25億英斗(5,906萬噸)。

巴西作為玉米主產國,該國農業部下屬的國家商品供應公司(Conab)7月11日在月報當中將2016/17年度巴西玉米產量預估從9,384萬噸上調至創新高的9,603萬噸,主要因為天氣有利使得二期玉米(冬季玉米)的產量預估從6,352萬噸上調至6,563萬噸的影響,一期玉米(夏季玉米)的產量預估則是從3,031萬噸略為上修至3,040萬噸。

同為玉米主產國的阿根廷,目前玉米收割工作已經完成51%左右,布宜諾斯艾利斯穀物交易所預計玉米產量將達到創紀錄的3900萬噸,平均單產預計為8.5噸/公頃。

阿根廷農戶和分析師稱,洪澇導致阿根廷部分地區的玉米收割工作放慢,積水嚴重地區的玉米單產受損,但是其他地區的單產高於預期,抵消了天氣不利造成的單產損失。

據中國農業部最新發佈,上調中國2017/18年度玉米產量預估至2.1191億噸,此前上月的預測2.1165億噸,而升幅主要因6月中下旬明顯的降水過程有效緩解前期乾旱,對春玉米生長和夏玉米出苗十分有利。作為相比,美國農業部(USDA)週三(7月12日)公佈的7月供需報告顯示,中國2017/18年度玉米產量預估為2.15億噸,與上月預估持平。此外,雖然中國臨儲玉米已成交2800萬噸,但仍有一半糧源未出庫,7月6-7日計劃投放量增至500萬噸,為玉米期貨價格供給明顯壓力。

2017/18年度,全球玉米期末庫存預估上調648萬噸至2.0081億噸,但較本年度將減少2,670萬噸;全球玉米產量預估上調504萬噸至10.37億噸,主要由於美國產量預估上調482萬噸至3.62億噸,以及其他玉米主產國產量高企所影響,因此建議投資者可於3.91-1/4美元/蒲式耳沽玉米期貨(7月),目標價3.74-1/2美元/蒲式耳,止蝕4.22-1/4美元/蒲式耳。

日期 大市分析
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
2016-05-09
2016-05-03
2016-04-27
2016-04-11
2016-04-05
2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
2011-10-28
2011-10-12
2011-10-08
2011-09-19
2011-09-03
2011-08-29
2011-08-22
2011-08-13
2011-08-08
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-05
2011-06-22
2011-06-13
2011-05-30
2011-05-23
2011-05-16
2011-05-09
2011-05-05
2011-04-27
2011-04-18
2011-04-04
2011-03-28
2011-03-21
2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
2010-07-20
2010-07-13
2010-07-05
2010-06-28
2010-06-21
2010-06-11
2010-05-17
2010-05-10
2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
2010-01-06
2009-11-27
2009-11-20
2009-11-16
2009-10-28
2009-10-05
2009-09-29
2009-09-07
2009-08-28
2009-08-21
2009-08-20
2009-08-17
2009-08-17
2009-08-14
2009-08-04
2009-07-24
2009-07-13
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-03
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-26
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-23
2009-06-23
2009-06-22
2009-06-15
2009-06-15
2009-06-12
2009-06-11
2009-06-11
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-01
2009-05-22
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-18
2009-05-07
2009-05-04
2009-04-30
2009-04-29
2009-04-29
2009-04-27
2009-04-27
2009-04-22
2009-04-22
2009-04-20
2009-04-17
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-27
2009-03-23
2009-03-23
2009-03-20
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-13
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-07
2009-03-03
2009-02-27
2009-02-20
2009-02-16
2009-02-16
2009-02-13
2009-02-12
2009-02-12
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-01-23
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-20
2009-01-16
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-09
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-06
2009-01-06
2009-01-02
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-23
2008-12-23
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-12
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-20
2008-11-20
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-17
2008-11-17
2008-11-14
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-11
2008-11-11
2008-11-11
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-07
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-03
2008-10-31
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-28
2008-10-28
2008-10-28
2008-10-24
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-17
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2006-06-23