2017-10-16

減產執行率憂慮消散​原油價格持續走強

美國WTI原油11月期貨週三(10月11日)持續收漲0.38美元,報51.30美元/桶。主要石油輸出國組織(OPEC)秘書長的樂觀言論影響仍在發酵,以及沙特計劃進一步削減原油供應繼續支持減產心動,令市場對減產執行率的擔憂情緒已經基本消散,為原油多頭注入信心。

OPEC最大石油主產國沙特阿拉伯於10月9日發表聲明表示,沙特阿美計劃在11月的石油供應中作出以有史以來最大的力度的削減客戶出口配額,以幫助減少全球庫存並平衡石油市場。沙特石油部發言人表態稱,沙特希望通過既限制生產也限制出口的方式來表達自己對恢復油市均衡的堅定承諾,因此,沙特阿美將於下個月“史無前例”的將客戶出口配額削減56萬桶/日,將原油出口限制在670萬桶/日以內,儘管9月需求旺盛。

“隨著我們即將在11月30日於維也納召開重要會議,在承諾調整市場方面,沙特再次展示了非凡的領導力。它不僅限制產量,更重要的是還限制出口,而最終塑造全球原油庫存和市場平衡的正是這二者,”沙特能源部稱。“沙特期望所有其他參與國都努力效仿,在未來維持8月份所達到的整體高水平的減產履約率”。

此外,OPEC正計劃擴大成員國規模,週二(10月12日)OPEC秘書長Mohammed Barkindo在印度舉行的印度能源論壇(India Energy Forum)發表講話表示,沙特和俄羅斯在莫斯科達成協議,同意歐佩克收納新成員國,以實現油市再平衡。目前,OPEC共有14個成員國。2017年5月,赤道幾內亞宣布加入OPEC,成為該聯盟最新的成員國。同時,Barkindo又敦促美國頁岩油生廠商加入全球減產的行列。

不過,美國似乎並未將OPEC的呼籲放在心內。美國能源部旗下能源信息署(EIA)本週三公佈,預計明年美國日均原油產量將增長68萬桶,增至992萬桶,這一日均增長預期較EIA上月公佈的預期多9萬桶,升幅約15%。在上調明年產量增長預期的同時,EIA將今年美國原油日均產量預期增長規模下調2萬桶,降至38萬桶,由此預計今年日均產量將達到924萬桶。

產量方面,美國油服公司貝克休斯(BakerHughes)週五(10月6日)公佈數據顯示,截至10月6日當週,美國石油活躍鑽井數減少2座至748座,因之前油價走低加大了美國頁岩油企業削減開支的幅度,美國石油和天然氣活躍鑽井總數增加4座至936座。另外,由於颶風內特的影響,墨西哥灣沿岸多個煉油長依然處於關停狀態,根據美國政府數據顯示,墨西哥灣沿岸約有85%的原油產量因颶風內特影響而被迫下線,約合149萬桶/日,這將在短期內繼續支撐油價。

需求方面,OPEC於10月11日最新發布的月報內調高了2017年至2018年的石油需求量,主要由於全球經濟復甦的影響。報告內,OPEC對今年全球經濟增速的預期由3.5%上調至3.6%;對明年經濟增速由3.4%上調至3.5%。今年全球經濟的增長將拉動每日150萬桶原油的需求,明年則將拉動每日140萬桶。

OPEC根據目前的全球石油供需情況分析稱,2017年日原油需求為3280萬桶,比2016年上升60萬桶。同時OPEC預計2018年原油產能為日3310萬桶,比9月的日產能高35萬桶,比上個月OPEC的預計值高20萬桶。全球原油需求預計增長13萬桶/日,建議投資者可於50.88美元/桶購WTI原油(11月),目標價52.84美元/桶,止蝕49.22美元/桶。

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