2018-08-10

關注優質銀行股,規避貿易戰風險

受內地去槓桿導致信貸緊縮,及中美貿易爭端前景不明朗影響,近期中港股市均表現疲弱。即便港股企業業績理想,在資金緊張及投資情緒審慎的情況下,仍難吸引投資者入市,令成交金額萎縮。在這種情況下,港股將維持震蕩格局,難有大幅反彈,不過持續下跌的空間亦不大,因企業估值較低,且不少上市公司回購股份,故長線投資者仍抱有信心。 

在如此市況下,不妨關注與中美貿易及內地經濟相關性較低的股份,比如香港本地銀行股。匯豐(5.HK)周一公佈半年報,列賬基準稅前盈利按年升4.58%至107.12億美,符合市場預期。次季經調整稅前盈利為61.1億美元,按年上升2%,派息維持第二季中期息每股10美分。受惠亞洲地區利率改善,亞洲地區的凈息差改善,唯歐洲地區仍較低,令二季度凈息差未有錄得理想增長。匯控新任董事長范寧2月上任後,表示集中精力押注核心市場亞洲區的擴張,唯目前營收增長速度仍低於成本增長速度,不過他仍維持全年收入增幅可高於成本的預期。

匯控的表現未能給市場帶來驚喜,主要因亞洲區業務的擴張暫未見明顯成效,不過旗下專注香港業務的子公司恆生銀行(11.HK),則錄得靚麗表現,上半年純利126.5億元,按年大升29%,遠勝市場預期;派第二次中期息每股1.3元,半年共派息2.6元,按年增8.3%。恆生的凈息差由1.84%擴闊至1.97%,淨利息收益率亦由1.94%增至2.1%。業績宣佈後兩家公司走勢各異,匯控輕微走低,而恆生連升兩日,反映市場對香港銀行業下半年及明年凈息差擴闊的憧憬。加上恆生銀行的成本效益改善,上半年經營成本按年僅升9%,成本效益比率由去年的30%改善至27.7%,遠優於母公司匯豐的逾40%,也勿難怪資本市場做如此選擇。

美聯儲啟動加息進程以來,香港尚未跟隨,反映資金仍充裕,唯近期花旗銀行已將最優惠利率按揭(P按)息率由P減3.1厘調升至P減3厘,被視為變相加息,相信9月份若美聯儲再加息,香港本地銀行很快會跟隨,除了恆生銀行外,其他香港銀行股亦受惠。龍頭之一中銀香港(2388.HK)目前股價明顯較被低估,市盈率約13倍,息率約3.6%,較恆生吸引。集團積極拓展東盟地區業務且受惠一帶一路,貸款業務增速較快,唯貿易戰可能對東盟地區業務帶來不確定性,留意月底公佈業績後表現。另一將於月底公佈業績的東亞銀行(23.HK),去年內地業務已扭虧,唯今年上半年仍存在壓力,ROE約10.5%,低於恆生和中銀香港,且受內地經濟影響較大,避險功能較弱。此前公佈業績的渣打(2888.HK)受制成本控制壓力,ROE雖改善至6.7%,但仍不及預期,需觀察下半年表現。


日期 大市分析
2018-08-10
2018-08-03
2018-07-27
2018-07-20
2018-07-13
2018-06-29
2018-06-22
2018-06-15
2018-06-08
2018-06-01
2018-05-25
2018-05-18
2018-05-11
2018-05-04
2018-04-27
2018-04-20
2018-04-13
2018-03-29
2018-03-23
2018-03-16
2018-03-09
2018-03-02
2018-02-23
2018-02-15
2018-02-09
2018-02-02
2018-01-26
2018-01-19
2018-01-12
2017-12-29
2017-12-15
2017-12-08
2017-12-01
2017-11-24
2017-11-17
2017-11-10
2017-11-03
2017-10-27
2017-10-20
2017-10-13
2017-09-29
2017-09-22
2017-09-15
2017-09-08
2017-09-01
2017-08-25
2017-08-18
2017-08-11
2017-08-04
2017-07-28
2017-07-21
2017-07-14
2017-06-30
2017-06-23
2017-06-16
2017-06-09
2017-06-02
2017-05-26
2017-05-19
2017-05-12
2017-05-05
2017-04-28
2017-04-21
2017-04-13
2017-03-31
2017-03-24
2017-03-17
2017-03-10
2017-03-03
2017-02-24
2017-02-17
2017-02-10
2017-02-03
2017-01-27
2017-01-20
2017-01-13
2016-12-30
2016-12-29
2016-12-16
2016-12-09
2016-12-02
2016-11-25
2016-11-18
2016-11-11
2016-11-04
2016-10-28
2016-10-14
2016-09-30
2016-09-23
2016-09-09
2016-09-02
2016-08-26
2016-08-19
2016-08-12
2016-08-05
2016-07-29
2016-07-22
2016-07-15
2016-06-30
2016-06-24
2016-06-17
2016-06-10
2016-06-03
2016-05-27
2016-05-20
2016-05-13
2016-05-06
2016-04-29
2016-04-22
2016-04-15
2016-04-07
2016-04-01
2016-03-24
2016-03-18
2016-03-11
2016-03-04
2016-02-26
2016-02-19
2016-02-12
2016-02-05
2016-01-29
2016-01-22
2016-01-15
2015-12-31
2015-12-24
2015-12-18
2015-12-11
2015-12-04
2015-11-27
2015-11-20
2015-11-13
2015-11-06
2015-10-30
2015-10-23
2015-10-16
2015-10-02
2015-09-25
2015-09-18
2015-09-11
2015-09-04
2015-08-28
2015-08-14
2015-08-07
2015-07-31
2015-07-24
2015-07-17
2015-07-03
2015-06-26
2015-06-19
2015-06-12
2015-06-05
2015-05-29
2015-05-22
2015-05-15
2015-05-08
2015-04-30
2015-04-24
2015-04-17
2015-04-10
2015-03-27
2015-03-20
2015-03-13
2015-03-06
2015-02-27
2015-02-13
2015-02-06
2015-01-30
2015-01-23
2015-01-16
2015-01-02
2014-12-24
2014-12-19
2014-12-12
2014-12-05
2014-11-28
2014-11-21
2014-11-14
2014-11-07
2014-10-31
2014-10-24
2014-10-17
2014-10-10
2014-09-26
2014-09-12
2014-09-05
2014-08-29
2014-08-22
2014-08-15
2014-08-08
2014-08-01
2014-07-25
2014-07-18
2014-07-11
2014-06-27
2014-06-20
2014-06-13
2014-06-06
2014-05-30
2014-05-23
2014-05-16
2014-05-09
2014-05-02
2014-04-25
2014-04-17
2014-04-11
2014-03-28
2014-03-21
2014-03-14
2014-03-07
2014-02-28
2014-02-21
2014-02-14
2014-02-07
2014-01-30
2014-01-24
2014-01-17
2014-01-10
2014-01-03
2013-12-27
2013-12-20
2013-12-13
2013-12-06
2013-11-29
2013-11-22
2013-11-08
2013-11-01
2013-10-25
2013-10-18
2013-10-11
2013-10-04
2013-09-27
2013-09-19
2013-09-13
2013-09-06
2013-08-30
2013-08-23
2013-08-16
2013-08-09
2013-08-02
2013-07-26
2013-07-19
2013-07-12
2013-06-14
2013-05-31
2013-05-03
2013-04-26
2013-04-19
2013-04-05
2013-03-15
2013-03-08
2013-03-01
2013-02-22
2013-02-15
2013-02-08
2013-02-01
2013-01-25
2013-01-11
2013-01-04
2012-12-28
2012-12-21
2012-12-14
2012-12-02
2012-11-23
2012-11-16
2012-11-09
2012-11-02
2012-10-12
2012-10-05
2012-09-21
2012-09-14
2012-09-07
2012-08-31
2012-08-24
2012-08-10
2012-08-03
2012-07-27
2012-07-20
2012-07-13
2012-07-06
2012-06-29
2012-06-22
2012-06-15
2012-06-08
2012-06-01
2012-05-25
2012-05-18
2012-05-17
2012-05-11
2012-05-04
2012-04-27
2012-04-20
2012-04-13
2012-03-23
2012-03-20
2012-03-16
2012-03-09
2012-03-02
2012-02-24
2012-02-17
2012-02-10
2012-02-03
2012-01-27
2012-01-20
2012-01-13
2012-01-06
2011-12-30
2011-12-23
2011-12-19
2011-12-09
2011-12-05
2011-11-25
2011-11-18
2011-11-11
2011-11-04
2011-10-28
2011-10-21
2011-10-14
2011-10-07
2011-09-30
2011-09-23
2011-09-16
2011-09-09
2011-09-02
2011-08-26
2011-08-19
2011-08-15
2011-08-05
2011-08-05
2011-08-01
2011-07-22
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-06
2011-07-04
2011-06-27
2011-06-17
2011-06-10
2011-06-03
2011-05-27
2011-05-20
2011-05-13
2011-04-29