2018-06-15

本地零售股復甦 待回吐後部署

2017年香港零售業扭轉了連續3年下跌的勢頭,錄得增長,訪港旅客人數亦走升。今年這一勢頭持續,4月零售業銷貨總值升12.3%,首4個月較去年同期升13.9%,不少本地零售企業亦發盈喜,帶動相關板塊持續造好。值得留意的是,儘管前景樂觀,但多數本地零售企業上半年均已累積一定升幅,資金或獲利了結,轉移至下半年受惠加息的金融類股份,周大福(1929.HK)績後大幅回吐亦反映這一取態,投資者不必急於入市,可待股價回落後再部署。

受內地反貪腐、自由行收緊、人民幣疲弱等一系列因素影響,從2014年至2016年,本地零售商盈利均大幅倒退,尤其珠寶、手錶等高端產品,銷量明顯下滑,令本地零售板塊經歷低谷。去年零售市道開始好轉,相關股份也見底回升,至今年上半年已累積較大升幅。尤其隨內地中產階級壯大,國家政策亦倡導消費升級,為香港的零售業銷售帶來支持。根據政府數據,今年首4月珠寶首飾、鐘表及名貴禮物的銷貨價值上升24.6%,藥物及化妝品上升17.9%。故這兩個板塊的龍頭股率先跑出,即將於下周公佈年報的莎莎(178.HK)年初至今已累漲87%,此前公佈的五一黃金周銷情極佳,同店銷售按年漲逾三成,內地客營業額錄得41%漲幅。珠寶行東方錶行(398.HK)亦發盈喜,股價今年累升逾五成。不過需要注意的是,這些股份已提前炒上,二三十倍的估值已基本反映預期,或如上周公佈業績的周大福(1929.HK)一般,出現績後大幅回吐的情況,不妨等候時機,趁調整再吸納。

除了珠寶、化妝品,零售服飾亦受惠市況好轉,I.T(999.HK)五月底公佈截至今年2月底止全年業績,盈利按年升37%,連續虧損兩年的港澳業務,下半年成功扭虧為盈,集團整體毛利率亦按年上升1.9個百分點。集團股價自5月以來股價累升五成,現價市盈率約16倍,仍吸引,料有上升空間。

如果覺得目前零售股估值已高,亦可考慮受惠零售市況好轉的商業地產及REITS。市場原本認為美國加息將不利於地產板塊,但事實上經濟復甦下,零售業向好,帶動租金上漲,令這類股份兼具防守性和成長潛力。經營海港城等高檔商場的九龍倉置業(1997.HK),直接受惠內地遊客消費力提升,唯此前已累積一定升幅,可待回落吸納。此前房托龍頭領展(823.HK)公佈的可分派收入增長符合預期,且續租租金調整率達29%,令市場感到驚喜,股價再度逼近年初高位。領展旗下商場多針對本地消費市場,反映本地市場氣氛向好,相信可支撐未來租金增長。

日期 大市分析
2018-06-15
2018-06-08
2018-06-01
2018-05-25
2018-05-18
2018-05-11
2018-05-04
2018-04-27
2018-04-20
2018-04-13
2018-03-29
2018-03-23
2018-03-16
2018-03-09
2018-03-02
2018-02-23
2018-02-15
2018-02-09
2018-02-02
2018-01-26
2018-01-19
2018-01-12
2017-12-29
2017-12-15
2017-12-08
2017-12-01
2017-11-24
2017-11-17
2017-11-10
2017-11-03
2017-10-27
2017-10-20
2017-10-13
2017-09-29
2017-09-22
2017-09-15
2017-09-08
2017-09-01
2017-08-25
2017-08-18
2017-08-11
2017-08-04
2017-07-28
2017-07-21
2017-07-14
2017-06-30
2017-06-23
2017-06-16
2017-06-09
2017-06-02
2017-05-26
2017-05-19
2017-05-12
2017-05-05
2017-04-28
2017-04-21
2017-04-13
2017-03-31
2017-03-24
2017-03-17
2017-03-10
2017-03-03
2017-02-24
2017-02-17
2017-02-10
2017-02-03
2017-01-27
2017-01-20
2017-01-13
2016-12-30
2016-12-29
2016-12-16
2016-12-09
2016-12-02
2016-11-25
2016-11-18
2016-11-11
2016-11-04
2016-10-28
2016-10-14
2016-09-30
2016-09-23
2016-09-09
2016-09-02
2016-08-26
2016-08-19
2016-08-12
2016-08-05
2016-07-29
2016-07-22
2016-07-15
2016-06-30
2016-06-24
2016-06-17
2016-06-10
2016-06-03
2016-05-27
2016-05-20
2016-05-13
2016-05-06
2016-04-29
2016-04-22
2016-04-15
2016-04-07
2016-04-01
2016-03-24
2016-03-18
2016-03-11
2016-03-04
2016-02-26
2016-02-19
2016-02-12
2016-02-05
2016-01-29
2016-01-22
2016-01-15
2015-12-31
2015-12-24
2015-12-18
2015-12-11
2015-12-04
2015-11-27
2015-11-20
2015-11-13
2015-11-06
2015-10-30
2015-10-23
2015-10-16
2015-10-02
2015-09-25
2015-09-18
2015-09-11
2015-09-04
2015-08-28
2015-08-14
2015-08-07
2015-07-31
2015-07-24
2015-07-17
2015-07-03
2015-06-26
2015-06-19
2015-06-12
2015-06-05
2015-05-29
2015-05-22
2015-05-15
2015-05-08
2015-04-30
2015-04-24
2015-04-17
2015-04-10
2015-03-27
2015-03-20
2015-03-13
2015-03-06
2015-02-27
2015-02-13
2015-02-06
2015-01-30
2015-01-23
2015-01-16
2015-01-02
2014-12-24
2014-12-19
2014-12-12
2014-12-05
2014-11-28
2014-11-21
2014-11-14
2014-11-07
2014-10-31
2014-10-24
2014-10-17
2014-10-10
2014-09-26
2014-09-12
2014-09-05
2014-08-29
2014-08-22
2014-08-15
2014-08-08
2014-08-01
2014-07-25
2014-07-18
2014-07-11
2014-06-27
2014-06-20
2014-06-13
2014-06-06
2014-05-30
2014-05-23
2014-05-16
2014-05-09
2014-05-02
2014-04-25
2014-04-17
2014-04-11
2014-03-28
2014-03-21
2014-03-14
2014-03-07
2014-02-28
2014-02-21
2014-02-14
2014-02-07
2014-01-30
2014-01-24
2014-01-17
2014-01-10
2014-01-03
2013-12-27
2013-12-20
2013-12-13
2013-12-06
2013-11-29
2013-11-22
2013-11-08
2013-11-01
2013-10-25
2013-10-18
2013-10-11
2013-10-04
2013-09-27
2013-09-19
2013-09-13
2013-09-06
2013-08-30
2013-08-23
2013-08-16
2013-08-09
2013-08-02
2013-07-26
2013-07-19
2013-07-12
2013-06-14
2013-05-31
2013-05-03
2013-04-26
2013-04-19
2013-04-05
2013-03-15
2013-03-08
2013-03-01
2013-02-22
2013-02-15
2013-02-08
2013-02-01
2013-01-25
2013-01-11
2013-01-04
2012-12-28
2012-12-21
2012-12-14
2012-12-02
2012-11-23
2012-11-16
2012-11-09
2012-11-02
2012-10-12
2012-10-05
2012-09-21
2012-09-14
2012-09-07
2012-08-31
2012-08-24
2012-08-10
2012-08-03
2012-07-27
2012-07-20
2012-07-13
2012-07-06
2012-06-29
2012-06-22
2012-06-15
2012-06-08
2012-06-01
2012-05-25
2012-05-18
2012-05-17
2012-05-11
2012-05-04
2012-04-27
2012-04-20
2012-04-13
2012-03-23
2012-03-20
2012-03-16
2012-03-09
2012-03-02
2012-02-24
2012-02-17
2012-02-10
2012-02-03
2012-01-27
2012-01-20
2012-01-13
2012-01-06
2011-12-30
2011-12-23
2011-12-19
2011-12-09
2011-12-05
2011-11-25
2011-11-18
2011-11-11
2011-11-04
2011-10-28
2011-10-21
2011-10-14
2011-10-07
2011-09-30
2011-09-23
2011-09-16
2011-09-09
2011-09-02
2011-08-26
2011-08-19
2011-08-15
2011-08-05
2011-08-05
2011-08-01
2011-07-22
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-06
2011-07-04
2011-06-27
2011-06-17
2011-06-10
2011-06-03
2011-05-27
2011-05-20
2011-05-13
2011-04-29